Market Demand
Demand is still there, but the mood has shifted. UK online retail remains resilient, and non-store retail is still growing, but shoppers are behaving more cautiously and more deliberately than they were even a few months ago. ONS said online sales values rose 2.4% month on month and 10.5% year on year in March, while the share of retail spend online moved up to 28.7%.[1] For D2C brands, that means the channel is healthy, but conversion is being earned through clearer value, tighter offers, and better delivery propositions rather than broad consumer confidence.
That same pattern showed up more clearly in grocery-adjacent behaviour during April. Worldpanel by Numerator reported take-home grocery sales up 0.9% in the four weeks to 19 April 2026, with promoted spend up 7.8% year on year and promotions now accounting for 31.3% of grocery spending.[2] In plain terms: customers are still buying, but they are actively hunting for reassurance. That usually benefits brands with strong hero SKUs, obvious product benefits, and a disciplined promotional plan. It is less forgiving for brands relying on full-price impulse or unclear differentiation.
Cost Pressures
Cost pressure has not gone away either. ONS said food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation rose to 3.7% in the 12 months to March 2026, up from 3.3% in February, while fuel was a major driver of broader inflation pressure.[3] That matters operationally because it tends to work through both shopper sensitivity and fulfilment cost over the following weeks. I would treat May as a margin-control month, not a volume-chasing month.
Carrier cost pressure also widened this month, and it is no longer just a Royal Mail story. Royal Mail’s new pricing took effect on 7 April 2026 across domestic parcel contract products, international account products, and surcharges.[4] Its business parcel surcharge page still shows an 11% fuel and energy surcharge on key parcel services and 8% for Parcelforce Worldwide services.[5] Outside Royal Mail, the tone is similar: DHL Express’s UK 4.9% annual price increase has been in force since 1 January 2026,[6] UPS introduced a new surge fee from 8 March 2026 on selected lanes plus a pre-release notification fee from 12 April 2026 for certain customs-clearance issues,[7] and FedEx applied a temporary increase to its domestic Additional Handling Surcharge from £12.95 to £13.95 per parcel effective 23 March to 8 May 2026.[8] Evri is still presenting itself as the lower-cost value option in market-facing pricing, rather than signalling a notable April public tariff step-up.[9] The practical read-across is that shipping inflation is now broad-based enough to assume continued pressure across most carrier mixes, even where changes are landing through surcharges and handling fees rather than base-rate headlines.
Channel-wise, there is also a steady structural signal worth keeping in view. Amazon continues to push further into UK online grocery, framing Britain as a highly developed online grocery market and expanding its store and partnership footprint.[10] For most food, drink, and health brands, that does not mean “sell on Amazon at all costs.” It means consumer expectations around convenience, availability, and repeat-order ease are continuing to rise. Brands that make replenishment clunky or delivery value hard to understand are likely to feel that pressure first.
Brand and Product Claims
For supplement and wellness brands, claims risk remains very real. MHRA published its latest advertising investigations on 10 April 2026,[11] and the ASA’s recent supplements guidance again makes clear that unauthorised health claims, exaggerated benefits, and medicinal-style claims remain red-flag territory.[12] That does not just affect compliance. It affects paid acquisition efficiency too, because the brands under pressure are often the same ones leaning hardest on aggressive promise-led creative.
Immediate actions
- Review shipping thresholds, bundle logic, and subscription economics .
- Lock in cut-off messaging early for the 4 May 2026 and 25 May 2026 bank holidays, especially for short-shelf-life products or promo-led campaigns.[13]
- Recheck top-selling supplement and wellness SKUs for claims language across PDPs, inserts, paid social, and email flows.
- Plan promotions around margin and stock depth, not just topline demand, because shoppers are clearly more offer-responsive than full-price confident.
How Move Fresh can help
We can help clients reset dispatch calendars around May bank holidays, pressure-test carrier and service mixes after the latest changes, and position stock more intelligently around promotion windows and repeat-order peaks. For health brands, we can also help reduce avoidable operational friction by making sure fulfilment touchpoints, inserts, and customer messaging stay aligned with tighter claims discipline.
References
[1] ONS, Retail sales, Great Britain: March 2026 (24 April 2026): https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/bulletins/retailsales/march2026
[2] Worldpanel by Numerator, British shoppers hunt for deals amid Middle East uncertainty (28 April 2026): https://worldpanelbynumerator.com/insights/british-shoppers-hunt-for-deals-amid-middle-east-uncertainty
[3] ONS, Consumer price inflation, UK: March 2026 (22 April 2026): https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/march2026
[4] Royal Mail, Prices 2026 effective 7 April 2026: https://www.royalmail.com/prices2026
[5] Royal Mail, Surcharges and Correction Charges: https://www.royalmail.com/business/mail/surcharges
[6] DHL Express UK, Annual price adjustments for 2026 in the UK (26 September 2025; effective 1 January 2026): https://www.dhl.com/gb-en/home/press/press-archive/2025/dhl-express-announces-annual-price-adjustments-fo-2026-in-the-uk.html
[7] UPS UK, Shipping Costs and Zones: https://www.ups.com/gb/en/support/shipping-support/shipping-costs-rates
[8] FedEx UK, Shipping Rates & Tariffs: https://www.fedex.com/en-gb/shipping/rates/fedex-rates.html
[9] Evri, Our Prices: https://www.evri.com/our-services/our-prices
[10] Amazon UK, Amazon UK plans increased focus on online grocery delivery : https://www.aboutamazon.co.uk/news/retail/amazon-uk-online-grocery-delivery-amazon-fresh
[11] MHRA, Advertising investigations: March 2026 (10 April 2026): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/advertising-investigations-march-2026–2
[12] ASA, Food, Food Supplements & Health Claims factsheet: https://www.asa.org.uk/static/3f5715ce-9cb4-4aba-9b249f6eb8859caf/Factsheet-for-MLM-Sellers-Food-Food-Supplements-Health-Claims.pdf
[13] Royal Mail, Service Update including May 2026 bank holidays: https://www.royalmail.com/service-update
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